Can US Stop China From Taking Taiwan? The Truth About US Wargames Vblog by the Eurasian Naval Insight. By Tim Tufuga

 

The American political and military think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), have run a war game simulation based on a futuristic Chinese invasion of Taiwan, using known Open Source Intelligence Sources, (OSINT), in which, the CSIS experts predicted an American Taiwan victory. The problems with the CSIS simulation are many, and most obvious of these refutations made by the Eurasian Naval Insight, is that the simulations was the fact that the simulations were based on historical empirical military precedents, and in thus, the historical based military case scenarios was drawn upon past military experiences of attempted island invasions, which were either thwarted, or simply aborted before an attempt was made. These aborted historical documented island invasion attempts included the planned American military invasion of the Japanese occupied Taiwan in 1944. The invasion attempt was aborted simply because according to the assessment then that an amphibious landing was considered too hard for the US Military during World War Two. Instead, the Americans had decidedly opted to invade Okinawa Island, which clearly exemplified the difficulty of an amphibious invasion force for even a much smaller island of Okinawa, which took two months of a high attrition conflict, back in April 1945 till June 22, 1945.

The problem with the CSIS reliance on historical precedence is the obvious proximity variable with China and Taiwan being separated by a mere 100 miles, or 161 km. Moreover, the CSIS reliance on Chinese military capability is purely OSINT sourced. The Chinese military war machine and capabilities has developed dramatically in recent decades, in that the CSIS data updates on Chinese weaponry and ISR capabilities have not been factored into their War game simulation. The Chinese military upgrades has been so drastic and rapid that their force multiplier variables have been underestimated by CSIS that their sheer ignorance of the Chinese military upgrades is tantamount to a fatal groupthink fiasco for the Americans and their peer allies. On the other hand the Chinese have been less than reticent in their declassification of many of their military hardware and software upgrades on social media, including within the Eurasian Naval Insight youtube channel. The Chinese have demonstrably revealed to theAsian region their geopolitical and spatial dominance not only through their economic dominance with BRICS plus and most notably through their military presence within the South China Sea region. 

Again, reiterating the 100 mile proximity between mainland China and Taiwan, the Chinese have been planning their reintegration with Kuomintang brethrens since 1949, by building their Green Water Naval Force that is unsurpassed by even the US Navy. The Taiwan Strait, for example, is well within the Green Water purview and the Chinese Navy. The Taiwan Strait is a Green water area where the depths of the Straits ranges between 30 metres in parts to 50 metres, unfortunately, for the American Nuclear Submarines, such as the Virginia Class Nuclear Submarines, although, very silent, means that the Green Water areas of the Taiwan Straits more shallow depths, means that large Nuclear Submarines such as the ever silent Virginia Class Submarines can not go undetected within the Taiwan Strait Green Water areas. The Chinese's numerous Anti Submarine Warfare (ASW) capabilities are very comprehensive and extensive, with numerous anti Submarine Ships such as the People's Liberation Army Navy's 80 or so ASW Corvettes, and and ASW Frigates, armed with numerous submarine detection sonars, and more lethal still are the ASW Helicopters, the Kamov 28 and the Z 9, deploying deep water sonar buoys, which are well capable of detecting even the most silent of Submarines, within the Green water 50 metre depth Taiwan Straits, which would make any highly stealthy Virginia Class Submarine very apparent, even to the naked eye. Finally,  the proximity of Taiwan to China, a mere 100 miles coast to coast, allows for a shorter logistical supply chain for military assets and material from the Mainland to Taiwan which will mean that the Virginia Class Submarine interdiction capabilities almost ineffective.

The Eurasian Naval Insight, has pointed out some of the glaring faults of the CSIS war game simulation model which pointedly reveal the antiquated views of many American military analysts who seem to have not been fully informed of the latest Chinese military hardware and software updates, including the Chinese radar, ISR, and weaponry systems, in which in many areas the Chinese have superior missile systems which would include a longer range air to air PL 15 missile system, and the obvious technological superior Chinese hypersonic missile batteries from land based launch batteries within mainland China, from the Chinese Submarines, and from the Chinese Ships, which are well within reach of Taiwan cities and military targets. 

Moreover, what has been proven very accurate in the CSIS assessment is the futility of Aircraft Carriers in modern day conflicts with the simulations revealing an obvious truism that in all the iterations amongst the first casualties of a Sino American military engagement within the South China Sea are the American Aircraft Carriers. None come out of this conflict afloat. In all possible scenarios all American Aircraft Carriers are sunk and very early in the conflict. Therefore, Carrier based Aircrafts, USN FA 18, and the JSF35s, have to rely on the Japanese Islands, as well as, Taiwan and Guam, for their return from any sorty against the Chinese Air Force. 

The Chinese Paper Dragon.

Overall, the likely outcome of a Sino-Taiwan, American and Japanese Conflict, apart from resorting to a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) from a thermonuclear conflict, the end game apparently is for an American, Japanese and Taiwan stalemate victory with no Chinese occupation of Taiwan, according to the CSIS simulation. However, the military tactical outcomes are rather speculatively dubious at best with a CSIS assessment of the Chinese military war machine as a Paper Tiger at worst. However, according to Eurasian Naval Insight Assessment, the Chinese Paper Tiger, or rather a Paper Dragon, is fatal euphemism of the true potency of the overall Chinese military capabilities and one in which may signal once and for all the end of the American Global Hegemonic influence since World War Two and the nascent rise of the Chinese regional hegemonic influence within the Asian Pacific Region moving well into the next century.

Tim Brian Tufuga